Erich J. Muehlegger

Published

January 1, 2026

ERICH J. MUEHLEGGER

Contact Information

University of California – Davis
Economics Department
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616

Phone: (617) 335-6083
Email: emuehlegger@ucdavis.edu
http://www.erichmuehlegger.com


Academic Appointments

2014-present

Department of Economics, UC – Davis

Professor (2022-present)
Associate Professor (2016-2022), Assistant Professor (2014-2016)
Graduate Program Chair (2016-2020)

Institute for Transportation Studies, Faculty Affiliate (2015-present)
Transportation, Technology and Policy Graduate Group, Affiliate (2015-present)
Davis Energy Economics Program, Faculty Affiliate (2014-present)


2005-2014

Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University.

Associate Professor, untenured (2010-2014)
Assistant Professor (2005-2010)

Harvard Environmental Economics Program, Faculty Fellow (2005-2014)
Regulatory Policy Program, Faculty Chair (2006-2009)
Harvard University Center for the Environment, Faculty Associate (2007-2014)
Harvard Lab for Economic Applications and Policy, member (2009-2014)


Spring 2022

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Visiting Associate Professor


Spring 2010

Columbia University, Visiting Scholar


Professional Appointments

2010-present

National Bureau of Economic Research, EEE
Research Associate (2016 – present)
Faculty Research Fellow (2010 – 2016)

2015-present

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Member of the Editorial Board

2018-2022

National Tax Journal, Member of the Editorial Advisory Board


Education

Primary Fields: Energy, Environment, Public Finance, Industrial Organization

2000-2005

MIT, Cambridge, MA. Ph.D., Economics.

1993-1997

Williams College, Williamstown, MA. B.A., Mathematics and Economics


Research Publications

  1. “Energy Prices and Electric Vehicle Adoption (with James Bushnell and David Rapson) accepted, JPE-Micro. https://www.nber.org/papers/w29842

  2. “How to spend one trillion dollars: the US decarbonization conundrum” (with Peter Christensen, Patrick Baylis, Teevrat Garg, Shanjun Li, Gordon McCord, Erica Myers, Emma Smith and David Rapson), Nature, 634, p. 1050 – 1052, 2024.

  3. “The End of Neutrality? LCFS, Technology Neutrality, and Stimulating the EV Market” (with Jim Bushnell, David Rapson and Julie Witcover), Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 13.1, 2024. https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/eeeparticle.aspx?id=500

  4. “Global Transportation Decarbonization” (with David Rapson), Journal of Economic Perspectives, 37:3, p. 163-88, 2023. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.37.3.163

  5. “The Economics of Electric Vehicles” (with David Rapson), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 17:2, p. 274-294, 2023. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/725484

  6. “Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy” (with David Rapson) Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 10:1, p. 263-282, 2023. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/721374?journalCode=jaere

  7. “Subsidizing Low and Middle-Income Adoption of Electric Vehicles: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from California” (with David Rapson), Journal of Public Economics 216, 2022. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272722001542

  8. “Pass-Through of Own and Rival Cost Shocks: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom” (with Richard Sweeney), Review of Economics and Statistics 104:6, p.1361-1369, 2022. https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/doi/10.1162/rest_a_01052/100990/Pass-Through-of-Own-and-Rival-Cost-Shocks-Evidence

  9. “Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles, and Opportunities.” (with James Archsmith and David Rapson), Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy 3:1, p. 71-110, 2022. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/717219

  10. “Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago” (with Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes and Soodeh Saberian), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 13:4, p.70-100, October 2021. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20190091

  11. “Who Bears the Economic Burdens of Environmental Regulations?” (with Don Fullerton) Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13:1, p.62-82, Winter 2019. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/reep/rey023

  12. “Tax Compliance and Fiscal Externalities: Evidence from U.S. Diesel Taxation.” (with Justin Marion). Journal of Public Economics, 160, p. 1-13, April 2018. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272718300276

  13. “Does Tax-Collection Invariance Hold? Evasion and the Pass-Through of State Diesel Taxes” (with Justin Marion, Joel Slemrod and Wojciech Kopczuk). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8: 2, p. 251-286, May 2016. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140271

  14. “Consumer Learning and Hybrid Vehicle Adoption” (with Garth Heutel) Environmental and Resource Economics, 62:1, p.125-161, September 2015. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-014-9819-3

  15. “Tracking Employment Shocks using Mobile Phone Data” (with Yu-ru Lin, Jameson Toole, Daniel Shoag, Marta Gonzalez and David Lazer), Journal of Royal Society Interface, 12:107, June 2015.

  16. “Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior” (with Shanjun Li and Joshua Linn) American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6: 4, p. 302-342, November 2014. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/pol.6.4.302

  17. “Weather, Salience of Climate Change and Congressional Voting” (with Evan Herrnstadt), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68: 3, p.435-448, November 2014.

  18. “Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes” (with Lesley Chiou), National Tax Journal, 67: 3, p. 621-650, September 2014.

  19. “Heuristic Strategies, Firm Behavior and Industry Information” (with Cynthia Lin) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 86: 1, p. 10-23, February 2013.

  20. “Tax Incidence and Supply Conditions” (with Justin Marion), Journal of Public Economics, 95, p. 1202-1212. October 2011.

  21. “Giving Green to Get Green: Incentives and Consumer Adoption of Hybrid Vehicle Technology.” (with Kelly Gallagher), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 61, p. 1-15. January 2011.

  22. “Do Americans Consume Too Little Natural Gas? An Empirical Test of Marginal Cost Pricing” (with Lucas Davis), Rand Journal of Economics, 41, p. 791-810. Winter 2010.

  23. “Edgeworth Cycles Revisited” (with Joseph Doyle and Krislert Samphantharak). Energy Economics, 32, p. 651-660. May 2010.

  24. “Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross-Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues” (with Lesley Chiou), BE Journal – Economic Analysis and Policy (Contributions), 8:1. December 2008.

  25. “Measuring Illegal Activity and the Effects of Regulatory Innovation: Tax Evasion and the Dyeing of Untaxed Diesel” (with Justin Marion). Journal of Political Economy,116:4, p. 633-666, August 2008.

  26. “Infinite Ergodic Index Zd Actions in Infinite Measure” (with B. Narasimhan, A. Raich, C. Silva, M.Touloumtzis, and W. Zhao). Colloquium Mathematicum, vol. 82, No. 2 (1999), 167-190.

  27. “Lightly Mixing on Dense Algebras” with (A. Raich, C. Silva and W. Zhao). Real Analysis Exchange, Vol. 23, No. 1, (1998), 259-266.


Book Chapters and other publications

  1. “Land Use Regulation and Commuting Patterns” (with Daniel Shoag) Procedia Engineering 107, p. 488-493, 2015.

  2. “Cell Phones and Motor Vehicle Fatalities” (with Daniel Shoag), Procedia Engineering 78, p. 173-177, September 2014.

  3. Commentary on Dealing with Expropriations: General Guidelines for Oil Contracts, “The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment” MIT Press, 2011.


Recent Working Papers

· “The Effects of Competition in the Retail Gasoline Industry (with Reid Taylor) revision requested, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. https://www.nber.org/papers/w33569

· “Political Ideology, Economic Incidence and Fuel Taxes: Evidence from 2018 California Proposition 6” (with Lucas Epstein), reject and resubmit, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. https://www.nber.org/papers/w32311


Fellowships and Grants

2022
Principal Investigator, Institute for Transportation Studies, NCST 2022 - 2023 Research Grant “Do Fuel Taxes Face Ideological or Economic Opposition? Evidence from Voting on Proposition 6 and Lessons for Policy-Making” $83,679

2021-2024
Co-principal Investigator, National Science Foundation, “Electric Vehicles: Economics of the Extensive and Intensive Margins (Award #2049929)” (with Fiona Burlig, David Rapson and James Bushnell) $600,000

2019
Principal Investigator, Institute for Transportation Studies, SB1 2019-2020 Research Grant “Do electricity prices affect EV adoption?” (with David Rapson and James Bushnell) $61,159

2018
Principal Investigator, Institute for Transportation Studies, SB1 2018-19 Research Grant “How much pollution abatement do EV subsidies buy us?” (with David Rapson) $75,710

2017
Principal Investigator, Institute for Transportation Studies, SB1 2017-18 Research Grant “Estimating the Effects of the Enhanced Fleet Modernization Project - Plus Up” and the Elasticity of Demand for Electric Vehicles” (with David Rapson) $79,986

2017
Principal Investigator, National Center for Sustainable Transportation and California Department of Transportation “Understanding the distributional impacts of vehicle policy: Who buys new and used alternative vehicles?” (with David Rapson) $99,101

2017
Principal Investigator, National Center for Sustainable Transportation and US Department of Transportation “Seed Grant: EV Incentive Pass-through and Dealer Margins” (with David Rapson) $31,400

2017
Principal Investigator, Institute for Transportation Studies – Public Transportation Account Project “Environmental Justice and Barriers to Low-Income EV Adoption” (with David Rapson) $39,824

2015
Principal Investigator, New England University Transportation Center Research Grant, “The Local Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Economic Activity and Traffic Safety” (with Daniel Shoag) $85,565

2014
Principal Investigator, New England University Transportation Center Research Grant, “Land-Use Regulation and Commuting Patterns” (with Daniel Shoag) $84,791

2013
Taubman Center for State and Local Government Research Grant ($15,000)

2013
KSG Dean’s Research Fund ($5,000)

2012
Taubman Center for State and Local Government Research Grant ($15,000)

2012
Principal Investigator, New England University Transportation Center Research Grant, “Cell Phones and Vehicle Safety”, (with Daniel Shoag) $97,303

2011
Taubman Center for State and Local Government Research Grant ($15,000)

2011
Principal Investigator, Energy Technology and Innovation Project, “Cell Phones and Vehicle Safety.” $32,822

2010
Principal Investigator, Energy Technology and Innovation Project, “Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior.” $59,243

2007
Principal Investigator, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government and Energy Technology Innovation Project, “Incentives for Hybrid Vehicles.” $28,635

2006
KSG Dean’s Research Fund $5,000

2002
Fellowship, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.

2000-2003
National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship


Teaching Awards and Experience

2025
Tom Mayer Distinguished Teaching Award, UC Davis

2024
Steven Sheffrin Award for Contributions to Graduate Education, UC Davis

2016
Tom Mayer Distinguished Teaching Award, UC Davis

2013
Dean’s Award for Teaching, Harvard Kennedy School

2012
Dean’s Award for Teaching, Harvard Kennedy School

2008
Dean’s Award for Teaching, Harvard Kennedy School

2007
Dean’s Award for Teaching, Harvard Kennedy School

2006
Dean’s Award for Teaching, Harvard Kennedy School

UC-Davis:

ECN221C:
Graduate Industrial Organization (2014-present)

ECN100B:
Intermediate Microeconomics (2023 – present)

ECN194HA:
Undergraduate Honors Seminar (2023 – 2024)

ECN121B:
Strategy, Competition and Regulation (2014-present)

ECN145:
Transportation Economics (2015 - present)

Harvard Kennedy School:

Executive Education: Modules on Empirical Methods and Environmental Policy

BGP200:
Strategy, Competition and Regulation (2008-2013)

API105:
Markets and Market Failure with Cases (2008)

API201:
Quantitative Analysis and Empirical Methods (2005 - 2008, 2011-2013)


Other Experience

2003-2005
Teaching Assistant, MIT Department of Economics

2001-2002
Research Assistant, Professor Paul Joskow.

1997-2005
CompassLexecon, Cambridge, MA

Analyst (1997-1998), Senior Analyst (1998-2000), Consultant (2000-2005)


Academic Presentations

2026
University of Toronto

2025
Georgia Tech, Colorado, ASSA meetings, Empirical Methods in Energy Economics annual meeting, AERE summer conference.

2024
Economics of Low Carbon Markets Conference (Keynote)

2023
University of Queensland, Texas, Empirical Methods in Energy Economics annual meeting

2022
Toulouse, ETH Zurich, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, University of Alaska – Anchorage, University of Richmond

2021
Arizona State University, Michigan State, Boston University, NBER EPEE, AERE Annual Conference, Virtual International Environmental and Energy Economics Seminar

2019
USC, UCSB, TE3 conference, Empirical Methods in Energy Economics annual meeting

2018
ETH Zurich, Connecticut, Occasional Environmental Economics Conference (UCSB), Environmental Taxation Workshop (Maryland)

2017
UCLA, LSU, UC Berkeley Energy Camp, NBER Hydrocarbon Infrastructure meeting, Empirical Methods in Energy Economics summer meeting, AERE annual conference

2016
AERE annual conference, UC Berkeley Energy Camp, Arizona

2015
UC Irvine, UC Davis, Michigan

2014
UC Davis, UC Berkeley

2013
University of Colorado, Harvard, University of Illinois – Urbana Champaign, ETH Zurich, University of Lugano.

2012
Yale, UC Santa Barbara, ASSA meetings, Cornell.

2011
ASSA meetings, Stanford, Northwestern, UC Davis, Maryland AREC, UC Berkeley Energy Camp

2010
Columbia, Duke, International Industrial Organization Conference.

2009
Yale, Columbia Business School, Harvard, Columbia.

2008
American Economics Association Meetings, Boston University, International Industrial Organization Conference, Harvard (2), MIT, Brandeis, NBER Summer Institute – Economics of Taxation, NBER Summer Institute – Environmental and Energy Economics.

2007
Federal Reserve, Tufts, International Industrial Organization Conference, UC Berkeley, Yale.

2006
Harvard, International Industrial Organization Conference, Yale SOM, Federal Trade Commission, UC Berkeley.

2005
Harvard, Cornell, USC, UC Irvine, Northeastern, Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission.



Other Invited Presentations

Panelist – American Bar Association Webinar entitled “Competition Downshift? Hot Takes on Tariffs, EVs, and Infrastructure,” April 30, 2025.

Panelist - Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandates Workshop, Resources for the Future, June 2023.

Academic Panel Lead – Climate Policy Lab Roundtable on Green Tax Credits, June 2021.

Commentor – GAO Methodology: Effects of Mergers and Market Concentration on Wholesale Gasoline Prices. 2008, 2009

Lead Speaker, U.S. / Taiwan Dialogue on Hybrid Vehicles. Sponsored by the U.S. State Department. 2009.


Consulting / Testimony

· Expert Witness, Ford Motor Company

· Expert Witness, Phillips Petroleum

· Expert Witness, Xcel Energy

· Consultant, South Coast Air Quality Management District

· Consultant, Taylor Policy Group

· Consultant, Copyright Clearance Center


Professional Service

Referee:

American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Review Insights, BE Journals in Economic Analysis and Policy, Contemporary Economics and Policy, Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Energy Policy, Environment and Resource Economics, Environmental Research Letters, Games and Economic Behavior, Health Economics, International Journal of Industrial Organization, International Tax and Public Finance, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of European Economics Association, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, National Tax Journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, Public Budgeting and Finance, Public Finance Review, RAND Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Industrial Organization, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Science Advances, Southern Economic Journal

American Economic Review Excellence in Refereeing Award, 2010.

Ad-hoc reviewer:

National Science Foundation
Canadian Social Science and Humanities Research Council
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
NBER pre-doctoral fellowship committee
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation)
Swiss National Science Foundation

J-PAL North America Grant Peer Review Committee

Conference committee member:

Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Annual Meeting (2016 – present)
Empirical Methods in Energy Economics Annual Meeting (2018 - present)
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society (2018)
National Tax Association Annual Meeting (2018, 2019, 2024)

Conference co-organizer:

Making Social Science Transparent conference, UC Davis, April 2016


University Service

UC Davis

Department Service:

Joint MPP Curriculum Committee (2023 - 2024)
Department Computing Committee (2022 – present)
Graduate Study Committee (2016 – 2020, chair) (2021, member)
Mental Health Committee (2020 – 2022)
Environmental and Energy Economics Seminar co-organizer (2018, 2020, 2022, 2025)
Industrial Organization Seminar Organizer (2015, 2016)
Teaching Evaluation Committee (2014, 2015)
Levine Family Seminar Series (2014)

Division Service:

Faculty Personnel Committee, College of Letters and Sciences (2024 – present)
L&S Large Grant Review Committee (2023)
Graduate Student Support Committee (2018-2020, member) (2020-2021, chair)
Institute for Social Sciences Executive Committee (2015, 2016)

University Service:

START taskforce, Future of Graduate Education Working Group on Doctoral Enrollment (2025)
START taskforce, Future of Graduate Education Subcommittee on Non-doctoral Education (2024)
Undergraduate Council (2023 – 2024)
Department Representative to the Academic Senate (2017 - 2021)

Other Service:

Graduate Affairs Committee for Energy Graduate Group (2016 – 2020)
Academic Affairs Committee Member, Energy Graduate Group (2017 - 2019)

Harvard Kennedy School

PhD Admissions Committee (2009 - 2013)
Joseph Crump Fellowship Committee (2008 - 2012)
HKS Faculty Research Seminar Coordinator (2011, 2012)
Harvard University Center for the Environment Fellowship Committee (2008)
Junior Analytics Search Committee (2006 - 2008)
MPP Admissions Committee (2005).
Student Internship Fund Committee (2005, 2007)


Public Service

Board Member, STMPR Advisory Group, South Coast Air Quality Management District (2023 – present)


Advising

Oral exam committee member:

2014-2015: Khaled Kheiravar, Jiwon Lee, Ariel Pihl, Irwin Rojas (ARE)

2015-2016:
James Archsmith (chair), Yuan Chen (ARE)

2016-2017:
Guozhen Li (TTP), Hanjiro Ambrose (TTP), Natalie Popovich (ARE),
Tongxin Xu (TTP)

2017-2018:
Kelsey Fortune, Jack Gregory (ARE)

2018-2019:
Ethan Krohn, Nick Bowden (EGG), Armando Rangel (ARE), Xiaotong Su

2019-2020:
Megan Song (ARE), Yijing Wang (ARE)

2020-2021:
Shotaro Nakamura, Qian Wang (ARE), Sarah Smith (ARE), Sonia Wang (ARE)

2021-2022:
Jiyeon Cheon (ARE), James Keeler (ARE), Jean Ji (EGG), Pedro Orozco (ARE)

2022-2023:
Irina Firsova, Ellen Anderson, Laura Alcocer (ARE), Mira Korb (ARE), Stephen Paolillo, Yuhan Wang (ARE)

2023-2024:
Reid Taylor, Kepler Illich, Robert Reaser

2024-2025:
Anya Robinson (TTP), Will Troske (ARE), Stuart Morrison (ARE), Francisco Pizzi, Diogenes Cruz (ARE)


PhD Dissertations:

Kate Emans (2008, Amherst College)
Jonathan Borck (2008, Analysis Group)
Hunt Allcott (2009, NYU)
David Molin (2009, CompassLexecon)
Matthew Ranson (2012, Abt Associates)
Richard Sweeney (2015, Boston College)
Evan Herrnstadt (2015, HUCE post-doc)
Samuel Stolper (2016, Michigan SNRE)
James Archsmith (2017, Maryland AREC)
Natalie Popovich (2019 ARE, Berkeley National Labs)
Khaled Kheiravar (2019, California Air Resources Board)
Tongxin Xu (TTP, 2019, Xmotors)
Ethan Krohn (2020, U.S. Census Bureau)
Nick Bowden (EGG, 2020, Ameren)
Jack Gregory (ARE, 2021, Aurora Energy)
Minsu Kim (2022, Bank of Korea)
Kelsey Fortune (2022)
Armando Rangel (ARE, 2023, Banco de Mexico)
Jiyeon Cheon (ARE, 2023, Korea Insurance Research Institute)
Qian Wang (ARE, 2023, AECOM)
Reid Taylor (2024, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Pedro Liedo (ARE, 2025, TEC de Monterrey)
Stephen Paolillo (2025)
Xiaotong Su
Kepler Illich (2025)
Irina Firsova
Francisco Pizzi
Will Troske (ARE)
Xinghuan Luo


Master’s Theses -

Alemayehu Kuma Awas (2006, MPA-ID)
Jonathan Phillips (2007, MPP)
Issac Wohl (2007, MPP)
Erik Wurster (2007, MPP)
David Grasso (2009, MPP)
Bruce Haupt (2009, MPP)
Claudia Sanchez (2009, MPP)
Sierra Peterson (2009, MPP)
Daniel Vetter (2011, MBA/MPP)


Undergrad Theses -

Michael Libert (2009, Economics)
Lucas Epstein (2021, Economics)
Ashton Coates (2024, Economics)
Jahanvi Narwal (2024, Economics)
Nandhini Srindhar (2024, Economics)
Fangyi Su (2024, Economics)
Evan Wu (2024, Economics)